Demographic trends are reshaping the U.S. labor force, leading economists and policymakers to rethink the key macroeconomic parameters that drive decision making, and reassess their views about the economy’s longer-run growth potential. Like melting glaciers, changes in global demographics are difficult to see in the near term, but over time they will reshape the landscape. [Continue]
Just like Chicken Little, the bond market was recently hit on the head with an acorn, and the yield curve screamed “recession.” The yield curve temporarily inverted, and the three-month Treasury yield was higher than the 10-year yield. This created a bit of hysteria, because an inverted yield curve has predicted the last seven recessions since 1970 with only one head fake. [Continue]
In the future, it is predicted that bankers with the best understanding of behaviors and emotions will create a new landscape for personal banking. Understanding that delicate interface where electronic machine-banking meets the customer’s need for authoritative human interaction will lead to a new chapter in relational banking. It will be light on human touch [Continue]
Patterns of behavior, including how a customer feels — their emotional state when they are interacting with banking professionals — is valuable information in creating successful transactions and relationships. If bankers know the behavior of a group inside of its customer base in data-analytical terms, and know how their customers feel when they are interacting with their financial selves, it makes it easier to offer products and services that the customer may not know exist. [Continue]
Every classic Western movie has a good, old-fashioned showdown. While this is a proven formula for cinema, the last thing we look forward to in global economics is a showdown. Economic showdowns can negatively impact growth, stock prices and inflation. Today, a number of economic issues could lead to a showdown. [Continue]
As interest rates rise, it is an interesting time to think about deposits. The change in the rate environment puts pressure on community banks to pay more to retain – let alone attract more – deposits. Loan demand seems strong in many places, reflecting a strong economy, but finding the money to fund those loans can be difficult. [Continue]
Despite lingering concerns in the ag sector and a tightening labor market, the landscape is looking up for banks. Second quarter GDP growth was 4.1 percent and fintech is a ripe field for exploration. [Continue]
The consensus of 16 chief economists from among the largest North American banks is that the economy will see inflation-adjusted GDP growth accelerating to 2.8 percent this year – the strongest pace since 2005. [Continue]
The focus in the banking industry during 2017 continued to be on performance. The Fed began raising the fed funds rate in late 2015 and again in late 2016. All expectations were for rate increases to resume in 2017, which they did in January, March and July up to a range of 1.00 to 1.25 percent, where it has remained. Even with these increases, margins remain compressed and borrowers are challenged by persistent concerns, particularly in the agricultural economy. Ag output pricing remains low and current supplies high. Therefore, as producers try to wait for price increases to sell, returns to producers resulting from improved yields on new production are not expected to materially increase overall returns and may have the effect of increasing downward pressure on prices, thus reducing returns. To increase prices more, avenues for sales need to open up. Trade restrictions can be counterproductive to development of market expansion, keeping domestic supplies to low valuations. This is putting pressure on land valuations adding further complications for banks operating in the agricultural communities. [Continue]
Wow! What a year 2017 has been. Manic hardly describes the antics in Washington after the election of Donald Trump. Those of you who know me are keenly aware that to me, “poly” means many, and “tics” are blood-sucking insects. … I digress, my apologies. This article is not about the swamp; it is about the community-banking environment heading into 2018, so let’s stay focused. [Continue]