The Commerce Trust 2024 midyear economic and market outlook
Entering the second half of 2024, we find ourselves in an environment that contradicts the forecasting tools we traditionally use to assess economic and market conditions. [Continue]
Rethinking the risks of self-employment
I’ve seen banks with niche loan offerings emerge before, and I’m certain they will again. And I, as a self-employed writer and online creator, am on high alert for that to happen. [Continue]
Waller: Banks preparing for CRE downturn
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller was in the Twin Cities recently and I had a chance to listen to him speak on monetary policy. He was asked about real estate. [Continue]
End of student loan pause offers an opportunity
BankBeat magazine talked to EarnUp Co-Founder and CEO Nadim Homsany about the current difficulties student borrowers face with repayment rules shifting.
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How much economic cushion did big banks provide during the pandemic?
How much of a role did the nation’s largest and most important banks play in leading the economic recovery from the shock of the pandemic? Perhaps less than their advocates and some policymakers claim. [Continue]
The advantage of banking in flyover country
Here are some of the things that have struck me about the banking industry since the closings of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. [Continue]
It’s springtime for entrepreneurs; time to cultivate business
Inflation. Continued supply chain disruptions. War in Ukraine. Yet another Covid variant. There’s never a shortage of bad news, is there? But if you’re looking for something on which to pin some real hope, consider this economic silver lining: In the last two years, there’s been a significant jump in the number of new business applications. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2021, a record 5.4 million applications were filed to form new businesses. [Continue]
Delayed gratification and the future of interest rates
We are taught in business school that interest rates are the expression of the time value of money. Time value of money ultimately boils down to “delayed gratification.” The lower the interest rate, the more we are comfortable delaying gratification in using our money for goods and services for ourselves. To be willing to delay the use of their money, people ask for interest to allow others to utilize their money until a later time. So, in 2021 when we experienced the lowest interest rates in modern financial history, does this sync with our society’s expanding patience for delayed gratification reaching new record highs? [Continue]
Climate change beckons bankers
May 1, 2008, was the first time I ever heard a speech on climate change in the context of a banking meeting. The annual “Day with the Superintendent” was taking place in West Des Moines, and former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack opened a 45-minute speech by declaring “climate change is real.” I think the speech caught a lot of people off guard, as evidenced by the tepid audience applause at the conclusion of his remarks. In 13 years, the climate change discussion has moved to the center of the policymaking agenda. [Continue]
Losing sleep but not heart
Revenue related to mortgage refinance is likely to be less this year than it was last year. A decline in rates motivated homeowners to refinance in 2020, but there’s really no room for rates to drop more. Federal stimulus makes it difficult to assess true credit quality. Businesses, particularly small ones, that seem to be skating through the pandemic may actually be operationally stressed. [Continue]